Eighteen months ago, half the Westside was bracing for a fire sale in the Palisades. Hundreds of burned lots were supposed to flood the market at once and drag prices into the ground.
It never happened. And the reason it never happened tells you almost everything about where this market is going.
The flood that turned into a trickle
In spring 2025, the forecast was 300 to 500 lots for sale in the first year. What actually showed up in April 2025 was about 116, selling at roughly five a month. That is two years of supply, which is the real estate version of a ghost town.
Today there are about 150 lots available, and roughly 32 sell every month. That is about five months of inventory. Not a crash. Not a boom. A market.
What land is actually worth right now
Recent lot sales average about $270 per square foot of land, which is roughly where things sat at the end of 2025. The median lot sells for about $1.8 million.
But averages lie a little here. Individual sales run anywhere from about $50 to more than $500 per square foot. Same zip code. Same fire. Wildly different outcomes.
The spread comes down to the stuff you cannot fake: the view, the street, the slope, and how much of the lot you can actually build on. Compared with before the fire, most lots are still 30 to 50 percent lower. Location decides which end of that range you land on.
The houses that are still standing
For homes in 90272, the median list price is $8,649,500. New listings come in lower, at a median of $5,995,000, and asking prices average $1,615 per square foot.
There are about 80 homes on the market. Here is how they break down:
Ultra luxury: median ask $20,847,500, about 10,498 sq ft, 185 days on market
Premium: median ask $10,997,499, about 6,566 sq ft, 98 days on market
Core Palisades: median ask $6,325,000, about 4,014 sq ft, 70 days on market
Entry: median ask $2,945,000, about 2,631 sq ft, 126 days on market
Notice the sweet spot. The $5M to $8M homes move in about ten weeks. The trophy homes take closer to six months. And about one in five listings has already cut its price, which tells you buyers are paying attention.
The 2,200 owners nobody is talking about
This is the number I keep coming back to.
About 4,200 properties lost homes. Only around 700 have sold. About 1,850 have filed rebuild permits, including roughly 500 from people who bought after the fire.
That leaves about 2,200 original owners who have not sold and have not filed. They are not in any market report. They are just sitting on their land, deciding. When they make up their minds, this market moves.
If you own a lot
You are not racing a flood of competitors, so you do not have to panic. That is the good news.
The less fun news: your neighbor's sale price is not your sale price. Two lots on the same street can be hundreds of dollars per square foot apart. Before you decide anything, get a valuation built for your specific parcel, not the street average.
If you are buying
Waiting for prices to collapse is officially no longer a strategy. Lot pricing has held for a year.
The opportunity now is the roughly 750 standing homes that had fire, smoke or water damage. Many will come to market slowly, and some will be priced for the work they need. A sharp inspection and an honest remediation estimate are where buyers quietly win.
The short version
The Palisades did not break. It reset. Land is finding its real price, the middle of the home market is healthy, and the biggest variable is a group of owners who have not said a word yet.
If you own here, or want to, I am happy to walk through what this means for your specific address. Call or text 310.480.0288, or email alex@flynnla.com.
Alex Flynn | The Beverly Hills Estates | DRE 01958142
Sources
The Wave That Never Came, Palisadian-Post, Oct 16, 2026 (lot inventory, sales pace, ownership and permit figures; partner content by the Edlen Team)
Pacific Palisades Market Update, October 2026, Altos Research data via Asal Homes (home prices, inventory, days on market, segments)
